Industry Forecast Seminar Mid-Term Update July 2006

Future Horizons will be holding a mid-term update seminar for the semiconductor industry. The one-day forecast seminar will take place July 25th at the Hilton Kensington London, England.

Below is part of the promo they sent me:

The chip market soared in first half of 2004, only to be caught in a second-half year, 12-month long inventory burn. This was a pause, however, not a full-blown recession, and growth started to take off again in Q3-2005.

The three key variables for the worldwide semiconductor market – the economy, unit demand and wafer fab capacity – are currently unusually positively aligned: excess inventory levels are close to zero; capacity utilisation is high and still rising; new fab capacity investment is moderate and can be absorbed; and the global economic outlook remains remarkably robust, despite the recent hurricanes, oil and natural gas price hikes.

No one knows for sure what the future will hold, and the semiconductor industry’s deterministic chaotic behaviour can always spring surprises. Does a strong global economy (especially through the first half of 2006) and an industry with its house in good order indicate a strong chance for a good first half-year sales growth, setting the stage for a seasonally strong second half-year as well?

Is the industry poised for an above-average growth spurt, or has industry maturity now finally tamed the industry cycles?

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